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Keenan Allen UNDER 44.5 receiving yards
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers • Nov 9, 2025
✅ HIT
+$130.43
Final Result
19 yards (cleared by 25.5 yards)
Odds
-115
Stake
1.5u
Risk/Win
+$1.73
📊 Pre-Game Analysis
Edge
+16%
Expected Value
+30%
True Probability
68%
Implied Probability
53.49%
Recent Performance
Hit Rate
7 of 9 games under 44.5 yards (77.8%)
Season Average
42.3 YPG
Last 3 Games
38.7 YPG (5 targets avg)
Cushion
-2.2 yards below line
Key Factors
Target Share Decline
Allen averaged only 5 targets over previous 3 games with route share dipping to 50.7% as Chargers rotated receivers.
Offensive Distribution
Chargers balanced philosophy emphasized spreading the ball rather than force-feeding veteran receivers.
Matchup Misdirection
Despite Pittsburgh ranking last in pass defense, Steelers game plan prioritized limiting explosive plays to top receivers.
Risk Factors
- Pittsburgh poor pass defense could create opportunities
- Allen veteran savvy in red zone
- Potential garbage time usage
📈 Game Results
Player Stats
receptions
2
targets
5
receiving Yards
19
yards Per Reception
9.5
catch Rate
40%
milestone Achieved
956th career reception (franchise record)
Quarter-by-Quarter
Q1-Q2
Allen caught 1 reception for 9 yards in first half as Chargers built 17-7 lead. Limited targets in run-heavy approach.
Q3
Added 1 more reception for 10 yards. Cleared under at this point with 19 total yards.
Q4
Chargers run out clock with blowout lead. Allen finished with just 2 catches on 5 targets.
✅ When Line Was Cleared
Mid-Q3 (stayed well under throughout)
Game Pace
Chargers dominated 25-10, limiting pass volume overall. Lowest yardage game of season.
🔍 Post-Game Analysis
What Went Right
Usage Trend Validated
Allen declining target share continued exactly as projected. Only 5 targets despite blowout.
Game Script Perfect
25-10 blowout allowed Chargers to control tempo and limit overall pass volume.
Market Mispricing
The -115 under offered value because market overweighted Pittsburgh poor pass defense.
Statistical Context
vs Season Average
-23.3 yards below 42.3 YPG average (-55.1%)
vs Recent Form
-19.7 yards below 38.7 YPG last 3 games (-50.9%)
vs Prop Line
-25.5 yards below 44.5 line (-57.3%)
Percentile Ranking
Bottom 10% of season receiving yards performances
💰 Closing Line Value (CLV)
Our Odds
-115
Closing Odds
-112
CLV
+3¢
CLV %
+2.70%
Verdict
Slight positive CLV - line held steady as public expected Allen to exploit poor defense
📝 Key Takeaways
- •Target share trends trump defensive rankings
- •Offensive philosophy matters - Chargers balanced approach limited Allen role
- •Game script awareness - 25-10 blowout reduced pass volume
- •Market mispricing created value on the under
- •Cleared by 25.5 yards - dominant performance
Final Verdict
Textbook example of identifying value when market overweights opponent weakness without accounting for usage trends.
Would bet this again under identical circumstances?
✅ Yes