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James Cook OVER 84.5 rushing yards
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins • Nov 9, 2025
❌ MISS
$50.00
Final Result
53 yards (short by 31.5 yards)
Odds
-114
Stake
0.5u
Risk/Win
+$0.57
📊 Pre-Game Analysis
Edge
+18%
Expected Value
+34%
True Probability
68%
Implied Probability
53.27%
Recent Performance
Hit Rate
7 of 9 games over 70 yards (77.8%)
Season Average
92.4 yards per game
Last 3 Games
103.7 yards per game (elite recent form)
Cushion
+7.9 yards above line
Key Factors
Elite Recent Form
Cook was averaging 103.7 rushing yards over his last 3 games, well above the 84.5 line. One of NFL's most efficient backs entering Week 10.
Dolphins Run Defense Weakness
Miami ranked 24th against the run, allowing 128.6 rushing yards per game. Bills' ground game historically exploited their defensive vulnerabilities.
Workhorse Usage
Cook handled 78% of Bills' RB touches and averaged 18.2 carries per game. Clear bellcow role with no timeshare concerns.
Risk Factors
- Josh Allen's rushing ability could vulture goal-line carries
- Potential shootout environment limiting run-game emphasis
- Miami's offensive tempo could force Bills to pass more
📈 Game Results
Player Stats
rush Attempts
13
rushing Yards
53
yards Per Carry
4.1
touchdowns
0
receptions
3
receiving Yards
14
longest Rush
12 yards
Quarter-by-Quarter
Q1
Bills fell behind early as Miami jumped out to lead. Cook got reasonable volume early but Bills trailed from the start.
Q2
Miami dominated first half, building comfortable lead. Bills tried to establish run but trailed significantly at halftime. Cook managed decent efficiency (4.1 YPC) but volume limited.
Q3-Q4
Complete blowout - Dolphins cruised to 30-13 victory. Bills playing from behind entire game limited Cook's opportunities. Got 13 carries total but never enough volume to reach 84.5.
❌ When Line Was Missed
Never approached line - finished at 53 yards, needed 84.5
Game Pace
Dolphins dominated 30-13, forcing Bills into pass-heavy attack while trailing. Cook got 13 carries with decent efficiency (4.1 YPC) but blowout game script prevented reaching volume needed.
🔍 Post-Game Analysis
What Went Wrong
Blowout Game Script
Dolphins dominated 30-13, forcing Bills to play from behind entire game. Cook got reasonable volume (13 carries) with decent efficiency (4.1 YPC) but needed more opportunities to reach 84.5 yards.
Volume Wasn't There
Cook needed 20+ carries to hit 84.5 yards. Got 13 carries - still below his 18.2 season average. Trailing big limited run game opportunities despite respectable efficiency.
Needed 32 More Yards
Cook finished with 53 yards on 13 carries (4.1 YPC). Needed 31.5 more yards - would have required 8 more carries at his game efficiency. Volume shortfall killed the prop.
Statistical Context
vs Season Average
-39.4 yards below 92.4 YPG average (-42.6%)
vs Recent Form
-50.7 yards below 103.7 YPG last 3 games (-48.9%)
vs Prop Line
-31.5 yards below 84.5 line (-37.3%)
Percentile Ranking
Bottom 30% of Cook's season performances - well below average
Variance Analysis
This was 75% game script variance, 25% analytical error. The projection assumed competitive game flow allowing Bills to establish run. However, Dolphins' 30-13 blowout forced Bills into pass-heavy attack. Cook's efficiency was fine (4.1 YPC) but 13 carries (vs 18.2 season avg) wasn't enough volume. Difficult to predict such a lopsided loss at home.
💰 Closing Line Value (CLV)
Our Odds
-114
Closing Odds
-118
CLV
+4¢
CLV %
+3.40%
Verdict
Positive CLV - line moved toward over as market recognized Cook's elite form and favorable matchup.
📝 Key Takeaways
- •RB rushing props require competitive game script - when team loses 30-13, even elite backs struggle to get volume
- •Cook's 13 carries vs 18.2 average shows importance of volume projections - needed 20+ attempts to reach 84.5
- •Decent efficiency (4.1 YPC) wasn't enough without volume - 53 yards on 13 carries fell 31.5 yards short
- •Blowout losses (30-13) kill rushing volume for trailing teams regardless of RB talent
- •Positive CLV and strong recent form don't overcome severe negative game script
Final Verdict
Strong pre-game analysis but blowout game script destroyed the prop. Cook's efficiency was fine (4.1 YPC, 53 yards on 13 carries) but volume shortfall made 84.5 yards impossible. Bills' lopsided 30-13 loss forced pass-heavy attack. Should have weighted potential for blowout loss more heavily given road matchup at Miami.
Would bet this again under identical circumstances?
❌ No