Drexel +4.5

Model projection strongly favors Drexel's value here, projecting a 2.4-point game versus the market's 4.5-point spread. B+ grade with 6.8% edge. The key matchup: Drexel's elite defense (65.7 PPG allowed, 22nd in Division I) vs Campbell's high-powered offense (80.9 PPG). Campbell's DJ Smith just dropped a career-high 39 in a road win and averages 21.1 PPG. But Drexel is 12-11 with a strong 6-4 CAA record. The 2-8 road record is the risk, but Campbell's 7-2 home mark may be inflated by weak opponents. The model trusts Drexel's defensive identity to keep this tight.