Eastern Illinois +9.5

Professional bettor activity and systematic indicators both align on Eastern Illinois getting 9.5 points. Model projects a 7.6-point game, creating 5.4% edge. EIU is 9-14 overall and just 1-10 on the road, which is ugly. But they beat Tennessee State 74-70 in the first meeting on January 10, proving they can compete. Tennessee State (14-8) is strong at home (8-2) but just lost to Tennessee Tech 90-85 and shot 6-24 from three in that game. Travis Harper (17.7 PPG) leads the OVC in scoring for TSU. The first-meeting result and EIU's defensive identity (70.2 PPG allowed, 82nd nationally) suggest 9.5 is a generous cushion.