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Oronde Gadsden II OVER 53.5 receiving yards
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers • Nov 9, 2025
❌ MISS
$100.00
Final Result
13 yards (short by 40.5 yards, knee injury)
Odds
-112
Stake
1u
Risk/Win
+$1.12
📊 Pre-Game Analysis
Edge
+13%
Expected Value
+25%
True Probability
63%
Implied Probability
52.83%
Recent Performance
Hit Rate
4 of 4 games over 68 yards (100%)
Season Average
64.7 yards per game
Last 3 Games
71.3 yards per game (hot streak)
Cushion
+11.2 yards above line
Key Factors
Hot Streak Continuation
Rookie TE had recorded at least 68 receiving yards in each of his previous four games, averaging 64.7 YPG entering Week 10. One of NFL's best rookie tight ends.
Primary Herbert Target
As primary TE for Justin Herbert, Gadsden received consistent volume and usage in Chargers' passing attack despite run-heavy offensive approach.
Steelers' Defensive Weakness
Despite Steelers' overall defensive strengths, their scheme allowed opportunities for athletic TEs in seam routes and middle-of-field targets.
Risk Factors
- Chargers' run-heavy approach in blowouts limits passing volume
- Rookie TE volatility - hot streaks don't last forever
- Potential for regression from four-game ceiling performances
📈 Game Results
Player Stats
receptions
3
targets
6
receiving Yards
13
yards Per Reception
4.3
catch Rate
50%
injury
Knee injury in Q3 (questionable to return, did not return)
Quarter-by-Quarter
Q1-Q2
Gadsden caught 2 of 4 targets for 8 yards in first half. Chargers built lead but Gadsden was uncharacteristically quiet despite receiving targets.
Q3
INJURY. Caught 1 more pass for 5 yards before leaving game with knee injury. Made awkward step on blocking play and limped to locker room, ending night prematurely.
Q4
Did not return. Listed as questionable but never came back. Injury sealed prop's fate.
❌ When Line Was Missed
Never approached line - stuck at 13 yards when injury occurred in Q3
Game Pace
Chargers' 25-10 blowout allowed LA to control clock and lean on defense rather than airing it out. Herbert spread ball efficiently, limiting reliance on rookie TE.
🔍 Post-Game Analysis
What Went Wrong
Injury Ended Night Prematurely
Knee injury in third quarter sealed this prop's fate. Gadsden caught 3 of 6 targets for 13 yards before awkward step on blocking play sent him to locker room.
Underperforming Even Before Injury
The 13 yards on 3 catches through nearly three quarters showed Gadsden wasn't hitting typical efficiency. Needed 54 yards but never approached that number even while healthy.
Blowout Game Script
Chargers' dominant game flow didn't require heavy reliance on rookie TE. Offensive balance and run-heavy approach in blowout limited his opportunities.
Statistical Context
vs Season Average
-51.7 yards below 64.7 YPG average (-79.9%)
vs Recent Form
-58.3 yards below 71.3 YPG last 3 games (-81.8%)
vs Prop Line
-40.5 yards below 53.5 line (-75.7%)
Percentile Ranking
Bottom 5% of Gadsden's season performances (injury-shortened)
Variance Analysis
This was 60% variance (injury), 40% error. The four-game hot streak created recency bias—assuming ceiling performances would continue indefinitely. While his role as primary Herbert target was real, rookie TEs experience volatility, and Chargers' run-heavy approach in blowouts limits passing-game props. The injury was unpredictable variance, but the prop was marginal even before that factor.
💰 Closing Line Value (CLV)
Our Odds
-112
Closing Odds
-115
CLV
+3¢
CLV %
+2.60%
Verdict
Slight positive CLV - line moved toward over as market recognized Gadsden's hot streak and role as primary TE target.
📝 Key Takeaways
- •Hot-streak props carry inherent regression risk, especially for rookies
- •Gadsden's four-game run of 68+ yards created narrative that baseline had shifted upward, but volatility remains for young players
- •Always discount recent ceiling performances when projecting props - recency bias is dangerous
- •In-game injuries kill props instantly - no pre-game analysis accounts for mid-game exits
- •Chargers' blowout approach (run-heavy, clock control) limited passing volume even before injury
- •Zero carries for first time all season signals complete offensive dysfunction
Final Verdict
Recency bias prop that relied too heavily on hot streak continuation. Four-game ceiling run masked rookie TE volatility. Injury was unfortunate variance, but prop was questionable even pre-game given Chargers' tendency to limit passing in blowouts.
Would bet this again under identical circumstances?
❌ No