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Kenneth Gainwell OVER 2.5 receptions
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers • Nov 9, 2025
❌ MISS
$100.00
Final Result
2 receptions (short by 1)
Odds
-105
Stake
1u
Risk/Win
+$1.05
📊 Pre-Game Analysis
Edge
+14%
Expected Value
+27%
True Probability
64%
Implied Probability
51.22%
Recent Performance
Hit Rate
5 of 8 games over 2.5 receptions (62.5%)
Season Average
2.8 receptions per game
Last 3 Games
3.3 receptions per game
Cushion
+0.5 receptions above line (passing-down role)
Key Factors
Passing-Down Role
Gainwell transitioned to Pittsburgh in 2025 as clear No. 2 back behind Jaylen Warren. His passing-down role suggested 3+ receptions achievable.
Negative Game Script Expected
Pittsburgh likely to trail Chargers, creating need for passing and checkdowns. Aaron Rodgers' tendency to check down under pressure favored Gainwell usage.
Snap Share Dominance
Gainwell led Steelers RBs with 52% offensive snaps, indicating significant role in offensive game plan.
Risk Factors
- Chargers' aggressive pass rush could prevent checkdown opportunities
- Potential blowout could limit overall offensive plays
- Rodgers' struggles could affect all passing-game participants
📈 Game Results
Player Stats
receptions
2
targets
3
receiving Yards
4
yards Per Reception
2
catch Rate
66.7%
rushing Attempts
0
snap Share
52%
Quarter-by-Quarter
Q1-Q2
Steelers fell behind early. Gainwell caught 1 reception as Chargers' defense dominated. Rodgers pressured constantly by LA pass rush.
Q3
Chargers extended lead. Gainwell added 1 more catch but Steelers' offensive collapse prevented volume. Never established rhythm.
Q4
Trailing 25-10 in blowout, Gainwell's usage remained limited. Recorded zero carries for first time all season, indicating complete game script disaster.
❌ When Line Was Missed
Never cleared - stuck at 2 receptions despite 52% snap share
Game Pace
Chargers' defense swarmed backfield. Rodgers had worst game of 2025 season under constant pressure. Steelers' offense couldn't sustain drives or protect QB.
🔍 Post-Game Analysis
What Went Wrong
Offensive Collapse
Steelers' offense couldn't protect Rodgers or generate plays, limiting all passing-game participants. Despite 52% snap share, Gainwell saw only 3 targets.
One Catch Away
Gainwell needed just one more reception to cash but only saw 3 targets in blowout loss. Missed by smallest possible margin despite being on field majority of game.
Checkdowns Never Materialized
Chargers' defense swarmed backfield preventing Rodgers from checking down to Gainwell. Pass protection breakdown eliminated designed RB routes.
Statistical Context
vs Season Average
-0.8 receptions below 2.8 season average (-28.6%)
vs Recent Form
-1.3 receptions below 3.3 last 3 games (-39.4%)
vs Prop Line
-1 reception below 2.5 line (-40.0%)
Percentile Ranking
Bottom 30% of Gainwell's season performances
Variance Analysis
This was 50% variance, 50% error. While Gainwell's role as passing-down back was correctly identified, the error lay in overestimating Pittsburgh's offensive competence on Sunday Night Football against dominant Chargers defense. However, missing by one catch in a blowout loss is also variance—one more target or completion swings result despite poor game script.
💰 Closing Line Value (CLV)
Our Odds
-105
Closing Odds
-108
CLV
+3¢
CLV %
+2.80%
Verdict
Slight positive CLV - line moved toward over as market recognized Gainwell's passing-down role and expected negative game script.
📝 Key Takeaways
- •Passing-down back reception props require offensive functionality - when opposing defense dominates and QB is under constant pressure, even workhorse snap shares don't translate to production
- •Gainwell's 52% snaps with 2 catches shows he was on field but ineffective - crucial distinction between opportunity and production
- •Primetime games against elite defenses warrant extra caution for volume-dependent props
- •Missing by 1 catch is brutal but reflects both poor game script and slight variance
- •Zero carries for first time all season signals complete offensive dysfunction
Final Verdict
Marginal prop that relied too heavily on assumed offensive competence. While Gainwell's role was real, Sunday Night Football against Chargers' elite defense created environment where even passing-down backs couldn't produce. Should have weighted Steelers' offensive limitations more heavily.
Would bet this again under identical circumstances?
❌ No