Morehead State +8.5

Systematic indicators favor Morehead State getting 8.5 on the road. Model projects a 6.4-point game, 2 full points tighter than the market. Both teams are 8-4 in the OVC, tied for 2nd — this is a massive conference game. Morehead has won 5 straight at Southeast Missouri's gym and 8 of the last 9 in Cape Girardeau. They won the first meeting 71-69 at home. Morehead's bench production (31.0 PPG, 2nd in OVC) gives them depth. The 3-9 road record overall is concerning, but the head-to-head dominance in this specific building suggests 8.5 is too many.