Tennessee -2.5

Our model projects Tennessee -4.9, but the market has this at just -2.5 — that's 2.4 points of line edge on a top-tier SEC team. Tennessee is 20-7 and tied for 2nd in the SEC. The line moved from -4.5 down to -2.5, meaning the market is overcorrecting for Mizzou Arena's home court advantage. Missouri at 18-9 is solid, but a #15 caliber Tennessee team being priced as barely a 2.5-point road favorite feels like a gift. When projections see nearly a 5-point win and the market gives you 2.5, you take the discount.